When Is Wisconsin Going to Play Again
It just might be the biggest prize of the 2022 election cycle, the race that could shape political control in Washington, D.C.
We're talking the fight for a U.S. Senate seat in Wisconsin.
We're a year out from the Aug. 9, 2022, primary and the Democratic candidates aren't just at the starting line — they're off and running, raising cash and grabbing endorsements.
Meanwhile, the Republican side is on hold, pending a decision from U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, who remains undecided about running for a third term.
Johnson is raising just enough money — and creating a ton of headlines — to keep his options open.
With a 50-50 split between Republicans and Democrats in the U.S. Senate, Wisconsin is shaping up as a pivot point.
There are 34 Senate seats being contested next year — 14 held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter has just three races rated as toss-ups: North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
If Johnson runs again, he'll be the only Republican Senate incumbent seeking re-election in a state that ex-President Donald Trump lost last year, said Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report.
"It is such an evenly divided state, perhaps the most evenly divided state in the country," Taylor said. "It's a state where there's a really stark partisan divide. People have on either their red jerseys or their blue jerseys."
If you haven't been following the race, don't worry, we've got you covered.
And there's a long way to go. The midterms will take place, Nov. 8, 2022.
How many Democrats are in the race?
On paper, it's really crowded. Ten people are officially running and another potential candidate has formed an exploratory committee.
Can you break this field down for us?
Sure.
Let's start with the top tier — Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski and Alex Lasry, on leave from his executive job with the Milwaukee Bucks.
Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said, "The fact that there is this large a field, which is overwhelmingly young and dynamic, speaks to the continued engagement and energy among progressives even after President Trump left office."
Zepecki said careers will be defined and enhanced by what occurs in the contest.
"It's not just the biggest prize for 2022, it's going to shape the futures of a lot of people with a role to play in Wisconsin for years to come," he said.
Among Democrats, Barnes, who entered the race last month, is probably the best known, both statewide and nationally. He and Gov. Tony Evers made an effective campaign team in 2018 when Democrats ousted Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch.
Last year, Barnes raised his visibility as a key campaign surrogate for President Joe Biden in Wisconsin while joining the national conversation in the country's reckoning on race.
He has some blemishes. Over the last few years he received criticism for overdue property taxes, unpaid parking tickets and an increase in security costs as lieutenant governor.
Announcing his candidacy on the same day the Milwaukee Bucks won the NBA Championship may not have been expertly timed. But the announcement video picked up online traffic and his message was clear as he vowed to "provide opportunity to fight for hard-working people" across the state and country.
Godlewski put herself on the political map in 2018 when she helped spearhead opposition to a constitutional amendment to scrap the state treasurer office, and then went out and won the job.
She has been dinged early in the campaign over being unable to verify a claim of saving the Pentagon $20 million while working as a defense contractor. She also acknowledged she did not vote in 2016 despite working for the Hillary Clinton presidential campaign in Wisconsin.
Although she raised less money ($513,000) than expected in her first fundraising cycle, she has garnered a key endorsement from EMILY's List, which backs women candidates who support abortion rights. She is also an adept campaigner who has been eager to take the fight to Johnson.
Lasry, who worked as a White House aide during the Obama administration, helped lead Milwaukee's bid to win the 2020 Democratic National Convention. He has never run for political office but has shown he can raise funds and had more than $1 million cash on hand at the end of June.
The Bucks' triumph could help Lasry, giving him a chance to focus on his role in the team's social justice efforts as well as labor agreements forged with the building of Fiserv Forum.
To win, the Milwaukee resident will likely have to convince Wisconsinites that he's one of them. He is a New York native and son of billionaire hedge fund manager Marc Lasry, one of the Bucks' owners. His biggest political miscue so far: getting a COVID-19 shot in January, when vaccines were in short supply.
How about the rest of the Democratic field?
There's a second tier of elected officials in the race, and Zepecki said "the goal for that group of candidates is to find a way into that top tier by the time the calendar turns to 2022."
So far, the one making the strongest case is Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, who has also been running the longest, entering in October 2020. He has been a steady fundraiser, attracted attention with some off-beat videos and sought support among backers of Bernie Sanders. He has also embarked on a 72-counties-in-72-days tour of Wisconsin, what he calls "The Full Nelson."
Milwaukee Ald. Chantia Lewis came out of the gate with a strong announcement video and is banking on her strong ties to the city to resonate.
Wausau radiologist Gillian Battino is trying to gain traction, pushing hard on the issue of Medicare-for-all.
Steven Olikara, founder and former chief executive of Millennial Action Project, formed an exploratory committee but hasn't yet galvanized support.
And, we got our first withdrawal Aug. 3, as State Sen. Chris Larson of Milwaukee suspended his campaign and threw his support to Barnes.
Four others have also filed paperwork to run: Kou Lee, a restaurant owner from Appleton; Adam Murphy, a business consultant from Franklin; Peter Peckarsky, a Milwaukee attorney; and Darrell Williams, administrator of the Division of Emergency Management in the Wisconsin Department of Military Affairs.
So what is Ron Johnson doing?
A year out, it's perhaps the defining question in the race. Back in 2016, when he beat Democrat Russ Feingold in a rematch, Johnson said he would serve only two terms. But after Trump's defeat, he began to reassess. He has said he won't jeopardize Republican chances to hold the seat.
If Johnson decides not to run, others could quickly step in.
The two most prominent names floated are U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher of Green Bay and Kevin Nicholson, who ran for the 2018 Republican U.S. Senate nomination and lost to Leah Vukmir.
Johnson raised $1.2 million in the most recent fundraising quarter, just enough to keep people guessing.
Johnson has certainly remained in the news. He has questioned whether the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol was an armed insurrection, questioned the need for vaccines or masks during the pandemic, and embraced a role as media foe.
"He has not been someone who has been acting like he represents a purple state," said Taylor, of the Cook Political Report. "Certainly, Johnson has always marched to the beat of his own drummer."
If he runs again, Taylor has little doubt that Johnson will be able to raise the funds necessary to compete in a race that will surely be the most expensive in Wisconsin history.
Johnson also has shown an ability to fight back.
"Clearly everyone counted him out in 2016," Taylor said.
If he does run, Johnson previewed the pitch he might make to voters while speaking in June at the state Republican convention.
He criticized Democrats, urged Republicans to run candidates "on every line of the ballot" and said, "we will take back our culture."
He called on Republicans "to unify, unite and heal this nation."
"And we're not going to do that by being angry," Johnson said. "We're not going to do that by imitating what they do, by being nasty like they are. We're going to do that by allowing light to pierce the darkness."
What we've reported
Mandela Barnes says 'check is in the mail' to pay delinquent property taxes
Bice: 33-year-old Bucks exec Alex Lasry got COVID-19 vaccine, says he was 'lucky' to jump line
'It's going to be very intense': Wisconsin will occupy a familiar spot in 2022 — at the epicenter of national politics 3.21
Ron Johnson is building a national profile as a Trump-era lightning rod. Here's how it could affect the fight over his Senate seat.
Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson embraces underdog role in his 2022 run for U.S. Senate
'I'm very, very serious about this race': Wausau radiologist Gillian Battino makes bid for U.S. Senate
Ron Johnson is still weighing whether to run for a third senate term next year, but says he's 'panicked' for the nation
Bice: U.S. Senate candidate Sarah Godlewski didn't vote in 2016 election despite working on Hillary Clinton campaign
About this feature
This is a weekly feature for online and Sunday print readers delving into an issue in the news and explaining the actions of policymakers. Email suggestions for future topics to jsmetro@jrn.com.
Source: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/08/06/who-running-against-ron-johnson-senate-wisconsin-2022/5416324001/
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